Preseason Rankings
St. John's
Big East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#31
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.3#116
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.8% 11.5% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 11.4% 11.5% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 20.0% 11.5% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.2% 51.7% 21.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.1% 45.7% 14.3%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 9.3
.500 or above 89.2% 89.6% 60.7%
.500 or above in Conference 63.3% 63.7% 39.0%
Conference Champion 12.3% 12.4% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 6.9% 18.1%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 5.3%
First Round48.5% 49.0% 16.6%
Second Round30.1% 30.4% 8.2%
Sweet Sixteen13.9% 14.1% 2.7%
Elite Eight6.4% 6.5% 1.7%
Final Four2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.3 - 4.01.3 - 4.0
Quad 1b2.1 - 2.53.3 - 6.5
Quad 24.7 - 2.68.0 - 9.1
Quad 35.0 - 1.013.0 - 10.1
Quad 47.6 - 0.220.7 - 10.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 300   Loyola Maryland W 83-64 98%    
  Nov 09, 2018 205   Bowling Green W 84-70 95%    
  Nov 16, 2018 140   @ Rutgers W 73-64 72%    
  Nov 19, 2018 198   California W 80-66 89%    
  Nov 20, 2018 127   Virginia Commonwealth W 81-72 78%    
  Nov 27, 2018 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 83-58 99%    
  Dec 01, 2018 113   Georgia Tech W 73-65 76%    
  Dec 05, 2018 331   Mount St. Mary's W 81-58 99%    
  Dec 09, 2018 145   Princeton W 76-66 87%    
  Dec 16, 2018 215   Wagner W 79-64 94%    
  Dec 19, 2018 318   St. Francis Brooklyn W 85-64 98%    
  Dec 22, 2018 324   Sacred Heart W 84-62 98%    
  Dec 29, 2018 52   @ Seton Hall W 77-75 46%    
  Jan 01, 2019 24   Marquette L 79-80 56%    
  Jan 05, 2019 69   @ Georgetown W 79-75 52%    
  Jan 08, 2019 8   @ Villanova L 74-79 24%    
  Jan 12, 2019 89   DePaul W 78-72 77%    
  Jan 16, 2019 41   Creighton W 79-78 64%    
  Jan 19, 2019 33   @ Butler W 75-74 41%    
  Jan 27, 2019 69   Georgetown W 79-75 71%    
  Jan 30, 2019 41   @ Creighton W 79-78 44%    
  Feb 02, 2019 4   @ Duke L 76-83 21%    
  Feb 05, 2019 24   @ Marquette L 79-80 36%    
  Feb 09, 2019 47   Providence W 73-71 65%    
  Feb 12, 2019 33   Butler W 75-74 61%    
  Feb 17, 2019 8   Villanova L 74-79 43%    
  Feb 20, 2019 47   @ Providence W 73-71 46%    
  Feb 23, 2019 52   Seton Hall W 77-75 66%    
  Feb 28, 2019 44   Xavier W 78-77 65%    
  Mar 03, 2019 89   @ DePaul W 78-72 61%    
  Mar 09, 2019 44   @ Xavier W 78-77 45%    
Projected Record 20.7 - 10.3 9.6 - 8.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.1 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.2 12.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 3.7 4.2 2.4 0.8 0.1 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.9 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.4 2.7 5.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.4 1.4 0.2 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.7 6.9 8.7 10.1 11.6 11.5 10.5 9.2 7.6 5.7 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 93.9% 2.0    1.8 0.2
15-3 80.7% 3.3    2.5 0.7 0.0
14-4 54.9% 3.1    1.7 1.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.5% 2.1    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 7.4% 0.7    0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 8.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 57.5% 42.5% 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 35.9% 64.1% 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.1% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 2.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.0% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 3.3 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.7% 99.5% 26.8% 72.7% 4.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-5 7.6% 97.8% 16.9% 80.9% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.3%
12-6 9.2% 92.2% 15.2% 77.0% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.7 90.8%
11-7 10.5% 82.4% 10.7% 71.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.8 80.3%
10-8 11.5% 58.1% 8.2% 49.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.8 54.4%
9-9 11.6% 39.4% 8.3% 31.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.0 33.9%
8-10 10.1% 15.0% 4.9% 10.1% 11.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.6 10.6%
7-11 8.7% 7.2% 4.9% 2.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 2.5%
6-12 6.9% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0%
5-13 4.7% 3.3% 3.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 51.2% 11.0% 40.1% 7.3 1.3 2.4 3.9 3.8 4.2 4.4 5.3 5.9 5.2 5.9 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 48.8 45.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 94.9 5.1